Zoë Colón & Jessica Maniscalco
Client Insights & Retail Insights
What’s Attribution Got To Do With It? A Strategic Guide To Innovation & Attribution Assortment
Prepared & Presented By :
Leadership Luminaries
WHAT & WHY?
Shoppers’ Preferences Are Ever Changing, But How Much & How Quickly Does That Moving Target Impact Category & Department Assortment?
Learning Objectives
Section I: Assortment Dynamics
•
Assortment breakouts across departments
•
Changing dynamics
•
Innovation & Disruption
•
Implications for brands & retailers
Section II: Lifecycle of Attributes
•
Lifecycles
•
Attributes stages & impacts
•
Using data to identify current role in market
Assortment Dynamics
Section I:
Cater to foodies or are focused
on functionality. Typically
premium products with niche
appeal.
Specialty & Wellness
ASSORTMENT
SPINS Brand Positioning
Consumer & Market Product Perception
Products that advertise
ingredient standards and
environmental/sustainable
benefits and missions.
Brands with large footprints
with conventional retailers,
tend to be household names
nationwide.
NaturalConventional
ASSORTMENT
Positioning group’s share of sales is consistent across most departments.
Alcohol and VMS are notable exceptions, where specialty items dominate in lieu of conventional.
77.6%
7.2% 7.9% 14.7% 13.0%
58.0%
9.2% 9.8%
9.8%
14.4%
14.3%
42.0%
20.8%
83.7% 82.3% 75.5%
84.1% 72.8%
1.6%
Alcohol Body Care Frozen Grocery
1.5%
Pet Refrigerated
0.0%
Vitamins & Supplements
Conventional Positioning Group
Natural Positioning Group
Specialty & Wellness Positioning Group
Positioning Groups’ Share Of Sales By Department
Most departments see unit decline as inflationary pressures continue.
Natural & specialty body care are fast-growing departments to watch.
VOLUME & GROWTH
-4.7%
-1.6%
-5.8% -6.3%
-4.9% -6.6%
$0.0 M
$50.0 B
$100.0 B
$150.0 B
$200.0 B
$250.0 B
$300.0 B Conventional -4.2%
-1.9%
-7.0% +17.8%-4.7%
+1.6%
-3.7%
$0.0 M
$5.0 B
$10.0 B
$15.0 B
$20.0 B
$25.0 B
$30.0 B
$35.0 B
$40.0 B Natural -0.4%
-1.1%
-1.1% +4.6% +0.6%
-4.9%
-2.9%
$0.0 M
$10.0 B
$20.0 B
$30.0 B
$40.0 B
$50.0 B
$60.0 B Specialty & Wellness
Positioning Groups’ L52W Dollar Sales & Units % Chg vs 2YA By Department
Specialty & Natural products gaining more space than Conventional items.
Despite shrinking shelf space across departments, Specialty & Natural offer the best opportunities.
SHELF SPACE
Average Items Selling By Positioning Group Absolute # Of Items (Chg vs 2YA)
Department Conventional Natural Specialty & Wellness Total
Alcohol -5 +6 -61 -60
Body Care -234 +16 +32 -185
Frozen -8 -8 -10 -26
Grocery +31 +63 +137 +231
Pet -21 -4 +13 -11
Refrigerated +19 +5 +25 +48
Vitamins & Supplements -24 +6 -18
Total -218 +54 +142 -21
INNOVATION
Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2
48,358
32,595 30,857
25,641 22,299 20,962 21,529 20,441
16,493 15,470 16,491 15,237 11,902
47.2%
19.6%
33.1%
47.2%
19.2%
33.6%
47.0%
17.4%
35.6%
48.4%
19.2%
32.4%
45.5%
21.1%
33.5%
47.8%
19.6%
32.6%
49.5%
17.5%
33.0%
47.7%
19.9%
32.4% 34.0% 33.1% 31.8% 32.7%
Qtr2
30.4%
22.8%
45.1%
20.9%
47.6%
19.3%
50.3%
17.9%
46.8%
19.9%
Qtr3
3,283
29.5% 21.3%
49.2%
Qtr3 Qtr4
47.4%
Conventional Positioning Group
Natural Positioning Group
Specialty & Wellness Positioning Group
S o u r c e : S P I N S S c a n – T o t a l U S – M U L O ( P o w e r e d B y C i r c a n a ) + T o t a l U S N a t u r a l E x p a n d e d C h a n n e l ,
New Product Launches By Quarter, 2021-August 11 2024
2021 2022 2023 2024
Innovation declining across all positioning groups.
Despite growth across the store, increased competition creating more competitive environment for new entrants.
CATEGORY DISRUPTION
+6.5%
Share Chg
vs 2YA
Naturally Positioned
Deodorants & Antiperspirants
+6.2%
Share Chg
vs 2YA
Specialty & Wellness Positioned
Superfood & Whole Food Supplements
+5.8%
Share Chg
vs 2YA
Conventionally Positioned
Shelf Stable Rice Cakes
Positioning group sales share increases signal potential department shifts.
Some categories will receive limited innovation while others will see permanent transformation,
leading to department shifts in positioning distribution overall.
Key Factors Impacting The Industry
TAKEAWAYS
Conventional dominates, but
specialty & natural have key pockets of
strength
Conventional has most volume, but natural & specialty see fastest
growth
Innovation continues to decline as
competition stiffens
Positioning group disruption at category
level signals future department disruption
Competition to get on shelf is tightening, but
opportunity awaits Natural & Specialty
Assortment Volume & Growth Innovation Shelf Space Category Disruption
Lifecycles Of Attributes
Section II:
EVOLUTION OF AN ATTRIBUTE – PRODUCT LIFE CYCLE
Question Marks: Development
Star: Growth with early adaptors
Cash Cow: Maturity & saturation
Dog: Beginning of decline
Time
Product & Attribute Lifecycle
Attributes that become mainstream across shopper demographics & channels will follow a typical product lifestyle cycle.
Intro
Product & Attribute Life Cycles Defined
EVOLUTION OF AN ATTRIBUTE – PRODUCT LIFE CYCLES
Question Marks
•
Experiencing major shifts in market share over time
•
Could include emerging or recent trend entrants to the market
•
May not be necessarily new, but has experienced a recent surge in interest
Stars
•
Have established key categories across departments
•
Becoming more consistent as volatility and shifting settle
Cash Cows
•
Could have been across several departments, but no longer shifting significantly
•
Mature and/or developed in departments, little to no opportunity for expansion
Dogs
•
<1% share shifts across departments
•
Significant compression of number of items sold or overall sales
EVOLUTION OF AN ATTRIBUTE – DEFINING STAGES THROUGH DATA
179
+70.2%
Lifecycle
Total # Items
Total # Items % Chg vs 2 YA
420
+11.1%
20,233
+5.0%
26,261
-11.5%
Use SPINS data to identify lifecycles within attributes.
$0.1B $0.7B
$41.9B
$57.7B
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
$0.0
$10.0
$20.0
$30.0
$40.0
$50.0
$60.0
$70.0
Certified Upcycled Ingredient- Nootropics Certified Non-GMO Project Diet- Whole 30 Friendly
$ %
C h
a n
g e
v s
2 Y
A$ B
il li
o n
s
$ Performance By Lifecycles
Total $ Total $ % Chg vs 2 YA
EVOLUTION OF AN ATTRIBUTE
Intro Product (s)
Development
Growth
Maturity
How can an attributes’ key categories be identified as they make their way through their lifecycle?
EVOLUTION OF AN ATTRIBUTE – FUNCTIONAL INGREDIENT MUSHROOM EXAMPLE
Let’s See How This Is Playing Out Currently With The Functional Ingredient Of Mushrooms
EVOLUTION OF AN ATTRIBUTE – FUNCTIONAL INGREDIENT MUSHROOM EXAMPLE
Life Cycle Stage Intro Question Star Cash Cow
Life Stage Entry
Anticipated # Item’s Growth (YOY) – 25%+ 15%+ 5-10%+
# Item Growth % Change – 27.1% 13.3% ?
# Items 59 75 85* ?
Anticipated Total Store $ % (YOY) – 30%+ 40-60%+ 15%+
Total Store $ % Change – 36.4% 40.6% ?
Total Store $ $66.7M $90.9M $127.8M ?
*3 New categories came into play during the Expansion phase
Anticipated thresholds help identify which lifecycle an attribute may be in.
Mushrooms haven’t yet reached Cash Cow status but are steadily progressing toward it based on current performance.
Functional Ingredient- Mushrooms
EVOLUTION OF AN ATTRIBUTE – FUNCTIONAL INGREDIENT MUSHROOM EXAMPLE
$0.0
$5.0
$10.0
$15.0
$20.0
$25.0
$30.0
Condition Specific
Sup Formulas
Kombucha &
Other Funct Bev
Other
Supplements
Shelf Stable
Coffee & Hot
Cocoa
Creams &
Creamers
Top 5 Categories With Functional Ingredient – Mushrooms ($ Sales Displayed Through Lifecycles)
Intro Question Star Category Performance
(vs 2 YA) Total $
$ Raw Growth
$ % Chg
# Items Selling
# Items Selling Chg
RF PB Meat Alts $7.8M +$7.7M – 5.4 +1.5
Superfood & Whole Food Supplements
$4.7M +$4.2M +911% 3.4 +1.2
RF Juices $2.0M +$1.8M +639% 3.4 +2.3
Wellness & Snack Bars $411K +$383K +1,336% 4.4 +2.4
Star categories sizes differ drastically from initially Intro & Question categories.
Question categories face limited competition & high risk but have high growth potential before reaching Star status.
Categories To Watch
Categories with Functional Ingredient- Mushroom Currently In Their Question Phase
Key Lifecycle Takeaways
TAKEAWAYS
Where is a product in its life cycle?
Attribution paths can shift rapidly, so use
data to track evolving journeys and adjust efforts accordingly
Would have the greatest impact when
trialed in either limited, targeted or
larger sets
Should be prominently integrated, featured,
and prioritized by brands in relevant
departments as demand grows
May have been part of larger strategy, re-prioritize space as sales decompress,
allocating to emerging Stars or established
Cash Cows
Will play a key role in long-term strategies
and should be integrated into
campaigns, shelf tags, and other strategic
initiatives
Cycle Questions Stars Cash Cows Dogs
