How CPG Brands Can Find the Right Path
Excellence in Innovation
The pace of new item launches has declined, but innovation remains top of mind for most executives
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NUMBER OF ITEMS LAUNCHED BY QUARTER
0%
10%
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30%
40%
50%
60%
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80%
Increased Stayed the same Decreased
HOW DID YOUR INNOVATION/R&D INVESTMENT IN 2024 CHANGE VS PY? – SPINS EXECUTIVE SURVEY, NOVEMBER 2024
Successful innovation is often the catalyst for high valuation
These brands have made innovation a core part of their strategy, with
a large share of sales coming from new UPCs
While more established brands have expanded beyond their original
category to great success.
Share of sales from new
UPCs (launched in L2Y)
24%
15%
86% (+12pts)88% (+5pts)
41% (+21pts)27% (+4pts)
Share of sales from outside original category (v 2YA)
Success is not guaranteed, but innovation is a key lever to build a brand’s presence
New Category Innovation (30% of all Innovation)
Line Extensions (70% of all Innovation)
Total Store Innovation Success Rate:
58%
Total Store Innovation Success Rate:
61%
Brands of all sizes can have successful launches, but
use different strategies for success
Innovation Success Rate by Brand Size^
61% 60% 58% 59%
55%
61% 61% 57%
64% 67%
New Brand Emerging
(<$1M)
Scaling Brand
($1-$10M)
Extending Brand
($10-$100M)
Large Brand
(>$100M)
Extend Existing Category Grow in New Category
The key to any successful innovation is building on what your brand already does well
Your superpower =
what makes you
special
Innovation =
amplifying your
strength
Don’t guess!
Expand intentionally
Here are three brands that did just that.
Solid Ethos -> Solid Foundation -> Solid Growth
Ethos: Clean Macros
Rooted in whole grains, protein, and clean
eating, Kodiak took their protein-forward
health halo in pancake mixes and spread it
across other breakfast-adjacent categories.
Ethos: Dietary Diversity
Catalina shook things up in their original
categories, then went after new business with
their tasty, low-carb, high-protein brand.
Ethos: Elevated
Rao’s essentially built the premium pasta
sauce set by themselves – and is carrying that
momentum into other aisles of the store.
Protein Range Category Share Share Chg
0.5 to 9g
>10g
Fz Waffles & Hot Cereal
84%
16%
-1.8
1.8
Snack Mixes
3-5g Fiber +12%
Keto Friendly +12%
TTL Subcategory -6%
Rao’s EQ Price index vs Subcat avg
232 209
How to Succeed
INNOVATION SNAKES & LADDERS
You are ready to jumpstart
your innovation pipeline, but
how do you ensure you are
one of the success stories?
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START 2 3 4 5 6
Innovation Snakes & Ladders
Finding the right ladder to grow, while avoiding common pitfalls
Introducing: The Snakes
Learn about and avoid these common
innovation pitfalls.
➔ Pitfalls:
•
Copycat Syndrome
•
Trend Turmoil
•
Novelty Overload
•
Over-Engineered Ego
•
Gut Gambles
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START 2 3 4 5 6
Over-Engineered Ego
Copycat Syndrome
Trend Turmoil
Novelty Overload
Gut Gambles
Hard Seltzer’s rise and fall – Copycat Syndrome
Hard Seltzer Sales vs 2 YAGO
# of New Items Launched:
2024: 159
2025: 82 (-48% vs last year)
Hard Seltzer, Natural Chl
Hard Seltzer, MULO+C Channel
Total Alcohol Department
-24.7%
-12.9%
0.7%
HOW MANY 5.0% ABV LIME SELTZERS DID WE NEED?
Don’t chase trends and fads with a blindfold
Trend Turmoil
If there’s not a clear fit with your
brand, you risk diluting your brand
and alienating your audience.
Novelty Overload
While ranch-flavored ice cream
might grab headlines, it’s not the
keystone to long-term portfolio
growth. Limited time offerings
have their place but need to be
balanced with sustainable
innovation
Ask yourself:
What does my brand stand for? If an idea
doesn’t align with what makes your brand
special, it may not be a good fit.
Ask yourself:
What are the long term goals of this launch?
Will new buyers attracted to the novelty stay
with the portfolio long term?
…and egos and instinct alone can lead to ruin.
Over-Engineered Ego
The first duty of an entrepreneur is
finding a problem worth solving.
Sometimes it’s not as easy as it
sounds.
Gut Gambit
Anecdotes aren’t a substitute for
data.
Ask yourself:
Who am I serving, who will enjoy and
appreciate my product?
Ask yourself:
What is your tolerance for failure? Following
your gut can lead to transformative
disruption of a category, but at a high risk
01
Core
Expansion
02
Sideway
Stretch
03
Attribute
Adjacency
04
Category
Contenders
Innovation Archetypes (the ladders) The right innovation plan for your brand, category,
growth stage
Widen your offerings while staying “close to home”
Core Expansion
Attribute Adjacency
Category Capture
Sideway Stretch
Successful Examples Outcomes:
•
Building strong shelf presence
•
Increased Market Share
•
Your current line is selling strong, but it’s narrow.
•
You’ve got flavor/format/pack ideas your core users would love—and there is
room in the category for brands with larger portfolios
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Brand A
Brand B
My Brand
Brand C
Brand D
Brand E
Quintile 1 Quintile 2 Quintile 3
Quintile 4 Quintile 5
When to Climb:
What to Look For:
Avg Items Selling relative to Category
2.1 2.4 3.1 2.6
7.8 9.1
11.3
8.8
Retailer 1 Retailer 2 Retailer 3 Retailer 4
Average Items – My Brand Top Brand
Item performance (velocity) in the Category
Expand into new pockets within your core segment
Core Expansion
Attribute Adjacency
Category Capture
Sideway Stretch
Successful Examples Outcomes:
•
Increased HH % Penetration Rate
•
Increased Market Share
•
You have a robust portfolio, so the obvious flavor/form innovation is already captured
•
You live in a highly innovative category if you are not looking for ways to give
customers added value, competition will
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Brand A
Brand B
Brand C
Brand D
Brand D
Brand E
Quintile 1 Quintile 2 Quintile 3
Quintile 4 Quintile 5
When to Climb:
What to Look For:
High Innovation Rate in your Category
My Brand
Innovation Rate (New Items / Total Items)
19%
18%
16%
16%
15%
Energy & Sports Drinks
SS Plant Based Milk
Baby & Toddler Food
Wellness & Snack Bars
SS Tea & Coffee RTD
Item performance (velocity) in the Category
Leverage your brand’s ethos in adjacent segments where it is also driving growth
Core Expansion
Attribute Adjacency
Category Capture
Sideway Stretch
Successful Examples Outcomes:
•
Increase Brand Value/Loyalty
•
Big leaps in company valuation
•
You have as established brand identity.
•
You’re maxed out in your core subcategory.
•
You can own adjacent spaces where your special sauce (value, ingredient, etc.) still matters.
When to Climb:
What to Look For:
High brand awareness Nascent share + growth in adjacent categories of core competency
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My Brand
Brand B
Brand C
Purchased Considered Aware
Category
Labeled Grain Free
$ Sales $ % Chg. vs. YA
SS Chips & Pretzels & Snacks
$276 M +24%
SS Cold Cereals $241 M +48%
SS Crackers &
Crispbreads $135 M +27%
Introduce your brand’s right-to-win into far-away areas of opportunity
Core Expansion
Attribute Adjacency
Category Capture
Sideway Stretch
Successful Examples Outcomes:
•
Further increases in Brand Value/Loyalty
•
New revenue streams
•
You’ve been very successful in core + adjacent.
•
You see a tired category that your unique ethos could reinvigorate
When to Climb:
What to Look For:
Struggling category Opportunity to be first mover Probiotic soda – Cat $ Share – Mulo + Conv
-2.9%
-3.5%
Soda
Units EQ Vol
Total Soda – Mulo+Conv – % Chg 2024 v 2023
0%
7%
w.e. 1/9/22 w.e. 5/18/25
You know the rules – now it’s your turn to play
Know Your Brand’s
Core Value
Pick The Right
Ladder Play To Win
Remember these three tips to win Innovation Snakes & Ladders:
Thank You!