Sustainability Signals
From Consumer Demand to Category Impact
SUSTA IN ABILITY SIGNALS
Why sustainability now?
The market signals you can’t ignore
2YEARS AGO YEAR AGO CURRENT
Natural Positioned Products
+6%
Ingredients $ % CHG
76%
39% 21% 17% 13%
2%
M o
ri n
g a
K e
rn za
H em
p
S e
ed
C hi
a S
e e
d
C h
ic o
ry
S o
rg h
u m
Inherently Sustainable
Policies are enforcing what’s better for People, Planet, and Animals. From
statewide EPR laws pushing recyclable packaging to animal welfare mandates,
regulations are making sustainability a shelf requirement, not a nice-to-have
(see Appendix B).
Natural products often serve as early indicators of sustainability trends—now
surpassing $73B in sales. Across categories, sustainability signals are fueling
growth: in Milk, label claims like grass-fed and pasture-raised lead the way,
while inherently sustainable ingredients like Moringa and Kernza are gaining
traction across the store. Together, these shifts show how sustainability is
driving both category innovation and shopper choice.
Shoppers are choosing products that signal better for People, Planet, and
Animals. Packaging, welfare claims, and transparent labeling are becoming key
decision drivers at shelf.
Sustainable
Products are
Outperforming
Consumer
Demand
is Shifting
Regulatory
Expectations
are Rising
SUSTA IN ABILITY SIGNALS
Consumer intent to purchase sustainable products is
rising but barriers still limit follow-through
• Environmental values are gaining traction but still secondary to factors like healthfulness and price
• Consumer intent alone isn’t enough: brands and retailers must actively invest in making sustainable options more accessible,
visible, and compelling.
44%
of consumers say they
would pay more for
products that ”improve
the health of the land
and the environment”
– PWC’s Voice of the
Consumer Survey 2025
36% 68%
of consumers
expressed desire to
purchase sustainable
products but didn’t due
to price and availability
– GlobeScan Sustainability
in the USA: What Consumers
Think and Expect in 2025
of US consumers
believe brands and
packaging producers
should be responsible
for sustainability in
packaging
– McKinsey UPC Packaging
Survey, March 2025
SUSTA IN ABILITY SIGNALS
How Consumers
Think About
Sustainability
Varies
Everyone defines sustainability
differently, using label claims,
ingredients, packaging, and
certifications as signals of
environmental or social impact.
SPINS attributes help decode these
signals and provide a clear view
into how sustainability influences
shopper behavior and drives
category performance.
Organic
Certified Upcycled
Regen
Good for
Planet
Good for
Animals
Cage Free
Animal Welfare
Good for
People
Ethical Practices
Fair Labor
Free Range
Clean Ingredients
01
Introduction
02 03 0504
SUSTA IN ABILITY SIGNALS
SPINS view on Sustainability
Decoding the signals behind sustainable products
INTRODUCTION
Sustainable products drive outsized growth despite smaller share in Specialty & Wellness and Natural
70% of all Naturally Positioned Food & Bev products sold in the past year had sustainability attributes
Sustainable Food & Bev products are growing faster than counterparts in Specialty & Wellness and Natural
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
9.00%
$0.00
$100.00
$200.00
$300.00
$400.00
$500.00
$600.00
Conventionally
Positioned
Spec Wellness
Positioned
Naturally
Positioned
$ %
G ro
w th
Y o
Y
Non-Sustainable $ Sustainable Non Sustainable Growth Sustainable Growth
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Naturally
Positioned
Specialty &
Wellness Positioned
Conventionally
Positioned
Share of Sustainability Share of Non-Sustainable
INTRODUCTION
Why Natural positioned products matter in this analysis
Throughout this presentation, we reference the performance
of Naturally positioned products as an indicatory of how
sustainability trends are likely to evolve. Why?
1. Naturally positioned products are often early adopters of
sustainability drivers
2. 70% of Natural products sold in the past year carry
sustainability-related attributes
3. Performance in this set offers predictive insight into
broader category trends
INTRODUCTION
Strong velocity and sales reinforce the value of natural
products at premium price levels
Naturally positioned products come with an average price premium of +25% more than conventional counterparts. Despite this premium and overall price uptick in the last year, there has been significant YOY sales growth driven by a +6% velocity increase showcasing consumer enthusiasm for natural products.
Natural Product Growth Drivers:
% Change vs. YA
+8% Dollars
+2% ARP
+6% Units +6%
Velocity (Units/TDP)
0% TDP
YEAR OVER YEAR % Change
LABEL CLAIMS ARP Dollar Sales
% $ Sold on Promo
Velocity (Units/TDP)
Total Conventional $4.27 +2% +1% 0%
Total Natural $5.35 +8% -1% +6%
Certified Non-GMO $4.20 +5% -1% +1%
Labeled Organic $4.91 +6% 0% +4%
Animal Welfare $7.11 +17% -18% +5%
Fair Trade $5.35 +12% -2% +10%
Products with Sustainable Label Claims Cost More, Promote Less, but Turn Faster
INTRODUCTION
Certifications and label claims build trust and deliver
clears wins for sustainability across categories
As consumers seek transparency, claims and certifications act as credible sustainability signals driving measurable growth across planet, animal, and people-focused attributes.
Planet
Food & Bev. products made with more sustainable label claims and certifications drive growth
Certified Regenerative Organic +21%
Labeled 100% Organic +16%
Certified Greener World: Non-GMO
+13%
Labeled Vegan +6%
Certified Non-GMO Project +2%
Animal
Food & Bev. products with animal welfare labeling consistently see double-digit growth
Grass Fed +40%
Free Range +38%
Cage Free +31%
Pasture Raised +30%
Animal Welfare +17%
People
Food & Bev. Products that avoid harmful ingredients, and those that regulate ethical business practices saw significant sales growth
Certified Seed Oil Free +230%
Nitrate Free +15%
Antibiotic Free +15%
Fair Trade +12%
Certified B Corp +3%
*Percentage figures represent $ % Change vs. YAGO
01 02
Category Impacts
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SUSTA IN ABILITY SIGNALS
Sustainability Category Impacts
How sustainable products are performing on-shelf
CA TEGORY IMPACTS
Sustainability is a
Key Growth
Driver Within
Category Sets
Sustainability attributes like
Certified Upcycled, Labeled Free
Range, and Glyphosate Residue
Free show strong growth with
even greater momentum in family-
focused category sets like Kid-
Centric, Breakfast Staples,
Protein-Centric, and Pantry
Staples.
Certified
Upcycled
+3%
Snack Staples Breakfast Staples
SS Cookies +>250% Breads & Baked Goods +>250%
Wellness & Snack Bars +195% SS Cold Cereal +152%
Nuts, Trail Mix, & Dried Fruit +10% SS Hot Cereal +>250%
Labeled
Free Range
+41%
Protein-Centric Breakfast Staples
SS Jerky & Meat Snacks +141% RF Eggs +31%
RF Meat, Poultry & Seafood
+51% Bacon & RF Breakfast
Meats +13%
FZ Meat, Poultry, & Seafood
+26% FZ Breakfast Foods +11%
Certified
Glyphosate
Residue Free
+14%
Pantry Staples Kid-Centric
SS Condiments & Dressings
+74% Baby & Toddler Food +19%
SS Oils & Vinegars +52% Infant Formula & Toddler
Nutrition Drink +14%
SS Flours & Baking Mixes +45% Wellness & Snack Bars +4%
CA TEGORY IMPACTS
Proven Success: Dairy Categories
Embracing Sustainability
Dairy categories are adapting to sustainability demands, fueling growth across segments. Certifications like ROC, Non-GMO, and Greener World – along with organic and grass-fed claims – are driving double digit dollar growth.
CREAMS & CREAMERS FZ ICE CREAM & NOVELTIES
BUTTER
+95% Dollar Growth
Regenerative Organic Certified
+28% Dollar Growth
Labeled Grass Fed
+20% Dollar Growth
Labeled Organic
+20% Dollar Growth
Certified Greener World
+37% Dollar Growth
Certified Non-GMO
+30% Dollar Growth
Labeled Grass Fed
+5% +3% +9%
CA TEGORY IMPACTS
As sustainability priorities rise, shoppers are buying fewer
plastic-packaged products across categories
6 of the top ten plastic-heavy categories are experiencing declines in unit sales of plastic packaging, with a notable shift in total sales share away from plastic
$ SALES OF PLASTIC PACKAGED ITEMS BY CATEGORY + DOLLAR GROWTH/DECLINE %
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
PROTEIN
SUPPLEMENTS &
MEAL
REPLACEMENTS
SOAP & BATH
PREPARATIONS
HAIR CARECREAMS &
CREAMERS
ENERGY &
SPORTS DRINKS
REFRIGERATED
JUICES
REFRIGERATED
YOGURT & PLANT
BASED YOGURT
WATERSODAMILK
(B ill
io n
s)
Share of Category Sales from Plastic Packaged Items Percentage Point Shift vs. YA
0% -3%
-4% +8%
-2% -7% +2% -4% -4% +21%
0 -2 -2 0 0 -4 -1 -1 -2 0
CA TEGORY IMPACTS
Shoppers Seek Better-for-the-Planet
Packaging Alternatives
Though plastic packaging still dominates the industry, sales indicators in key categories show that consumers are opting into better-for-the-planet options.
MILK SODA & WATER HAIR CARE
Though the primary
packaging type by sales,
velocity is flat.
+0.6%
Units/TDP
plastic
Bottom Ranked
Packaging Type by
Absolute Unit Decline in
Soda & Water-250M
Units
plastic
#1 Top Ranked
Packaging Type for
Velocity growth,
followed by
Aseptic Cartons
(+8% Units/TDP)
+20%
Units/TDP
glass #1 Top Ranked
Packaging Type by
Absolute Unit Growth in
Soda & Water+230M
Units
cans Touted as a zero waste
solution to packaging in
hair care, shampoo bars
continue to skyrocket in
growth
+31%
Dollars
shampoo bars
Though the largest
contributor to sales by
share, plastic bottles
are declining in YOY
sales
-4%
Dollars
plastic
CA TEGORY IMPACTS
Sustained Consumer Demand Fueling Growth
Momentum In Accelerating Categories
Categories accelerating both Natural Product share and Dollar growth are ripe for sustainability expansion; Yogurt being the prime example (Green quadrant). Categories lower in Natural Product share with significant dollar growth demonstrate emerging sustainability opportunity; Eggs being the prime example (Blue Quadrant).
Underperformance Emerging
AcceleratingSaturated
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
TOP 10 CATEGORIES BY NATURAL POSITIONED DOLLAR SALES – SHARE & GROWTH
4% 5% 6% 7%-5%-9% 9%-8% 10%-7% 11%-6% 55%-4% -3% -2% -1% 8%0% 1% 2% 3%
Category $ % Chg
RF PLANT BASED MILK
BREAD & BAKED GOODS
MILK RF MEAT POULTRY & SEAFOOD FRESH
Size of bubbles is indicative of dollar sales representation
RF YOGURT & PLANT BASED YOGURT
SS CHIPS & PRETZELS & SNACKS
WATER
FZ ICE CREAM & NOVELTIES
WELLNESS & SNACK BARS
RF EGGS
CA TEGORY IMPACTS
Price Premiums Today, Stability Tomorrow —
An Eggzample Worth Noting
Though still at a premium, sustainably positioned egg prices have remained steadier, while conventional egg prices have sky-rocketed. Now, the price gap between sustainable and conventional eggs is less than 50 cents.
$3.62
$5.77 $4.74
$7.08 $4.90
$6.09 $6.24
$7.53
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
0 6
/0 1
/2 0
2 2
0 7
/0 1
/2 0
2 2
0 8
/0 1
/2 0
2 2
0 9
/0 1
/2 0
2 2
1 0
/0 1
/2 0
2 2
1 1
/0 1
/2 0
2 2
1 2
/0 1
/2 0
2 2
0 1
/0 1
/2 0
2 3
0 2
/0 1
/2 0
2 3
0 3
/0 1
/2 0
2 3
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/0 1
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2 3
0 5
/0 1
/2 0
2 3
0 6
/0 1
/2 0
2 3
0 7
/0 1
/2 0
2 3
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/0 1
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/2 0
2 3
1 0
/0 1
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1 1
/0 1
/2 0
2 3
1 2
/0 1
/2 0
2 3
0 1
/0 1
/2 0
2 4
0 2
/0 1
/2 0
2 4
0 3
/0 1
/2 0
2 4
0 4
/0 1
/2 0
2 4
0 5
/0 1
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2 4
0 6
/0 1
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2 4
0 7
/0 1
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1 0
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2 5
0 2
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2 5
0 3
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2 5
0 4
/0 1
/2 0
2 5
0 5
/0 1
/2 0
2 5
Price of Eggs (ARP)
Conventional Sustainable
Avian Flu Outbreak
Avian Flu Outbreak
+54%
Sustainable
Eggs
ARP INCREASES SINCE 2022
+96%
Conventional
Eggs
01 02 03
The Sustainable
Shopper
0504
SUSTA IN ABILITY SIGNALS
Understanding the Sustainable Shopper
What Shoppers Want: Perceptions & Psychographics
THE SUSTAINABLE SHOPPER
Perceptions &
Psychographics
Sustainability holds varied
meanings for today’s
consumers: from A healthier
lifestyle & environmental
concerns to natural options for
kids – these values form a
universal core.
CORE SUSTAINABLE SHOPPER
True Believers
• Majority Early-Mid Millennials
• Buying trigger focus: a healthier lifestyle, the
environment, their kids
Enlightened Environmentalist
• Majority Baby Boomers
• Buying trigger focus: healthier lifestyle, concern for the
environment
ASPIRING SUSTAINABLE SHOPPER
Healthy Realist
• Majority Mid-Late Millennials
• Buying trigger focus: a healthier lifestyle, more natural
options for kids
Strapped Seekers
• Majority Gen Z & Millennials
• Buying trigger focus: a healthier lifestyle, natural
options for kids
THE SUSTAINABLE SHOPPER
Sustainability Impact On Brand Loyalty &
Repeat Purchases
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/shephyken/2025/03/16/why-customers-pay-more-for-brands-with-purpose-the-
Brand Transparency, Demonstrated Through Certifications, Builds Consumer Trust & Fosters Loyalty. Non-GMO Certification Leads The Way In Driving Repeat Purchases Across Departments.
CERTIFICATION % REPEAT BUYERS BY DEPARTMENT
21%
58%
38% 46%
66% 67%
30%
9%
50% 57%
70%
41%
59%
90% 97%
FROZEN REFRIGERATED GROCERY
Certified Regen Organic (Bronze) Labled Organic Certified Fair Trade Labeled Animal Welfare Certified NON-GMO
01 02 03 0504
Case Study
SUSTA IN ABILITY SIGNALS
Case Study: The Regenerative Shopper
Who is purchasing Certified Regenerative Organic products
and where do the opportunities lie for this emerging but
influential Certification?
THE REGEN ERATIVE SHOPPER
Case Study:
Understanding the
Regenerative Organic
Shopper
Understanding who purchases
Certified Regenerative Organic
products not only gives insight
into who is purchasing, but
where additional white space
opportunity lies.
Millennials with no
children
Young families with
children under 12
More disposable
income
May or may not have
disposable income,
but prioritize their
children’s nutrition
Both Price Sensitive – often purchase
private label products when buying
Certified Regenerative Organic
True Believers
White Space Opportunity:
Price Conscious & Health
Forward products built for
the at home chef
White Space Opportunity:
Family friendly & Health
Forward products that grow
with the family
Psychographic
Household
Income
Similarities
OpportunityCertified Regenerative Organic Buyers are up
30% YoY
THE REGEN ERATIVE SHOPPER
Basket Affinity Insights
for Certified
Regenerative Shoppers
Certified regenerative shoppers
are premium, high-frequency
buyers who consistently build
baskets with natural, organic,
and specialty staples signaling
them as a critical target for
growth and cross-promotion
strategies.
SS SWEETENERS GRANULATED
SUGAR CANE
SS SOUP RTE
BREAD LOAVES
MILK
RF EGGS
RF YOGURT
SS CANDY CHOCOLATE
SS COOKIES
RF CHEESE
SS SPICES & SEASONINGS
% of Target Trips % of Total Trips
Trip Index
2.2 18.88
3.2 9.06
10.7 1.96
13.6 1.42
7.8 2.23
7.2 2.29
9.2 1.76
7.6 1.70
4.0 3.08
3.7 3.34
Shoppers who
purchase certified
regenerative products
are 9x more likely to
purchase refrigerated
cheese but only 3x
more likely to
purchases shelf stable
ready to eat soup.
TOP 10 CATEGORIES PURCHASED with CERTIFIED REGENERATIVE PRODUCTS
THE REGEN ERATIVE SHOPPER
Building Trust
through
Certifications
Concerns over climate change, soil
health, and the effects of a heavy reliance
on toxic chemicals have driven the
popularity of regenerative agriculture
which aims to restore and replenish soil
health.
Regenerative Organic Certified products
go the extra mile through third party
verification – boosting consumer
confidence in the supply chain and
efficacy of the certification.
Across Food, Bev, & Alcohol: Dollars % Change, Yago
Certified B Corporation
+15.8% Certified B Corp + ROC
+2.4% +2.4%
+15.8%+22%
Certified Non GMO
+15.8% Certified Non GMO + ROC
+4.9% +30.8%
Labeled Fair Trade
+15.8% Labeled Fair Trade + ROC
+10.7% +13.9%
Certified Organic
+15.8% Certified Organic + ROC
+6.6% +9.8%
“85% of consumers trust independent, third-party certification organizations to verify product claims”
– NSF
01 02 03 05
The Path Forward
04
SUSTA IN ABILITY SIGNALS
The Path Forward
As consumer expectations around sustainability continue to
rise, we can expect further innovation in this space, but the
core principle remains: meet consumers’ values with
verifiable action, and momentum will follow.
THE PATH FORWA RD
Certifications as a playbook for what’s next
Each certification has been introduced in response to a new layer of consumer demand. In a marketplace full of greenwashing, shoppers look to
certifications for proof of purpose, credibility, and real impact. Brands that meet consumers’ values with verifiable action will succeed.
Certification Evolution
Consumer Priorities
Foundational Trust-Building Transformational
Health Transparency Impact
USDA Organic Non-GMO + Organic Regenerative Organic Upcycled
USDA Organic set the standard for
trusted, centralized certification focused
on soil health and avoiding synthetic
inputs.
Non-GMO expanded transparency, giving
shoppers more control over ingredients
and reinforced trust alongside Organic
standards.
Regenerative Organic highlights
investment in soil health, ecosystem
restoration, and ethical farm practices.
Certified Upcycled shows commitment to
reducing food waste and driving circular
innovation.
The most enduring of label claims and certifications build from the standards, practices, and education of the previous standards – creating a clear sightline of growth across the industry
THE PATH FORWA RD
Three levers for building trust & driving
sustainable change
The most resilient brands are integrating sustainability into every part of their value chain making sustainability more visible, credible, and actionable to the consumer at the point of purchase.
TRANSPARENCY
✓ Clarify Sustainable Packaging Claims
✓ Get Certified
✓ Educate the shopper (ensure sustainable messaging is visible on-pack, & AI-readable on web)
INNOVAT ION
✓ Design for circularity (i.e., sustainable packaging, upcycling)
✓ Consider lifecycle and reduce environmental impact
✓ Lead in your category
ACCESS
✓ Democratize options
✓ Use Promos & Private Label
✓ Remove shopper friction at all points of the shopper journey
Thank You!
APPENDIX A
Sustainable Definition Methodology
There are many sustainability signals across all dimensions of a product. For the purposes of this analysis, we have defined Sustainable products as products that are clearly positioned to shoppers with Sustainable-forward signals across Food & Beverage Categories. This means products that are labeled or certified as good for the people, planet, and animals
How is “Sustainable” / “Sustainability” defined? (slide 5)
• Includes all products that qualify for at least one (1) of the Label Claims or Certifications below in the following Departments: Frozen, Grocery, Refrigerated, Produce
✓ CERTIFIED B CORPORATION
✓ CERTIFIED DETOX PROJECT – GLYPHOSATE
RESIDUE FREE
✓ CERTIFIED FAIR TRADE USA
✓ CERTIFIED FAIRTRADE AMERICA
✓ CERTIFIED GREENER WORLD – GRASSFED
✓ CERTIFIED GREENER WORLD – ANIMAL
WELFARE
✓ CERTIFIED GREENER WORLD – NON GMO
✓ CERTIFIED MARINE STEWARDSHIP COUNCIL
✓ CERTIFIED NON-GMO PROJECT VERIFIED
✓ CERTIFIED REGENERATIVE ORGANIC
✓ CERTIFIED UPCYCLED
✓ LABELED FAIR TRADE
✓ LABELED NON-GMO
✓ LABELED ORGANIC
✓ CONTROLLED ENVIRONMENT AGRICULTURE
✓ LABELED ANIMAL WELFARE
✓ LABELED PASTURE RAISED
✓ LABELED CAGE FREE
✓ LABELED GRASS FED
✓ LABELED ANTIBIOTIC FREE
✓ LABELED FREE RANGE
✓ LABELED NO ADDED HORMONES
APPENDIX B
Sustainability Rules Are Evolving Fast. Here’s How:
Sources: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/agec.12801
https://perkinscoie .com/insights/update/extended-producer-responsibility-packaging-laws-united-states
https://www .internationalpaper.com/resources/article/landscape-us-state-epr-packaging-laws
Existing and emerging regulations are transforming what reaches the shelf and accelerating growth of products with attributes that benefit People, Animals, and the Planet.
Laws in CA, WA, and others mandate that companies manage the lifecycle of packaging, pushing for recyclability and emissions tracking. National emissions targets under IRA also push food companies to decarbonize supply chains.
GOOD FOR PLANET
California’s Prop 12 restricts sale of animal products from inhumanely confined animals; upcoming federal scrutiny may impact feed and farming practices, including plant-based transitions (e.g., incentives for regenerative practices).
GOOD FOR ANIMALS
FDA bans on certain synthetic dyes and additives are expanding. States like NY and CA ban Red Dye 3 and brominated oils. Fair Trade and B Corp certification are gaining federal recognition in procurement policies.
GOOD FOR PEOPLE